Facts and figures


Tekst.

Scenario's

The EnerGEO project aims to assess the impact of energy use on the environment, for a large scale transition towards renewable energies. To prove that the Integrated Assessment Framework which is developed in the project does work project partners IIASA and DLR have been developing hypothetical scenarios to be used in the Framework.

The aim of developing the scenarios is to identify how inclusion of potentials for renewable electricity can influence the structure of power generation and which effects the new structure will have on:

  • Emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases
  • Human health
  • Ecosystems
  • Other impacts (to be identified within pilots)

When a scenario is developed, the start is an exogenous baseline for energy demand. The uptake of renewable energy is modified according to DLR´s energy model ´REMix´ results, and the fossil fuel consumption is modified accordingly, keeping the total electricity demand the same. Then, the scenario can be implemented in the impact model ´GAINS´ to calculate the impacts.

Four scenarios have been defined to illustrate the capability of the modelling cluster to assess the impact of contrasting energy mixes:

  1. "Baseline": continuation of current European policies with regard to limitation of CO2
  2. “Open Europe”: Solar import to Europe from North Africa, high biomass share, nuclear phase-out
  3. “Island Europe”: no electricity imports from outside Europe, renewable energy use like in “Open Europe” or higher, nuclear energy use continued / extended
  4. “Maximum Renewable Energy": renewable energy penetration close to 100%

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This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 226364

 

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